A MULTIMETHOD TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF SUICIDE AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN JAMAICA (1980-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55197/qjmhs.v4i4.197Keywords:
suicide, governance, Jamaica, time-series, SEM, ARIMAXAbstract
Suicide remains a significant public health challenge in Jamaica, yet its macro-level determinants are underexplored within a longitudinal framework. This study employs a multimethod quantitative design to investigate the effects of GDP per Capita, rape incidence, political governance, and life expectancy on suicide rates in Jamaica between 1980 and 2024. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX), and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), the research examines direct and temporal associations among the selected variables. Findings from the OLS regression indicate that GDP per Capita and life expectancy are negatively associated with suicide rates, while rape incidence shows a significant positive relationship. ARIMAX analysis confirms these patterns, revealing lagged effects of GDP and rape on suicide, suggesting that improvements in economic conditions and reductions in violent crime yield delayed but significant benefits for mental health outcomes. SEM results further demonstrate that GDP per Capita exerts both direct and indirect effects on suicide through life expectancy, highlighting a mediating role of health in the economic-suicide nexus. This research underscores the importance of a multidimensional policy approach that integrates economic development, violence prevention, and public health improvement in efforts to reduce suicide in Jamaica. The findings hold critical implications for national mental health strategies and suggest that suicide prevention should be embedded within broader socioeconomic planning. Future studies should incorporate mental health service accessibility and cultural stigma as additional explanatory variables to enhance understanding.
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